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10 Bold Predictions For The 2nd Half Of The 2012 MLB Season

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Most informed baseball scribes are hesitant to make outrageous claims and statements for fear of the backlash. But as an uniformed hack I have the creative license, and general lack of viewing audience, to throw as much crap against the wall in the hopes of making just some of it stick. Here are 10 bold predictions for the second half of the 2012 MLB season starting with..

#1) the Boston Red Sox will make the AL playoffs and Bobby Valentine will be named AL Manager of the Year. There is much too much talent on this Boston roster to let a little dysfunction ruin the season. They are after all only 9.5 games behind the first place Yankees and can expect Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, and Clay Buchholz to all return to the lineup soon. With enough time to make a playoff push look for Bobby V to garner much of the credit for changing the culture of the clubhouse by directly challenging the credibility and accountability of underachieving players OR things continue to backfire and Boston finishes dead last in the East and Valentine returns home to Stamford, CT where he will resume his duties as Director of Public Health & Safety.

#2) Speaking of health and wellness, the Texas Rangers will finish the regular season with the best record in baseball but fail to make it out of the divisional round of the playoffs due to a season ending injury to Josh Hamilton. Nobody wants to see an athlete get injured, especially one as talented and transcendent as Hamilton, but backs can be tricky things. There is no rhyme or reason to a bad back. I have a colleague who spent an entire morning on the floor of his office after spasming when he bent over to tie his shoe. Every time Hamilton swings through a first pitch changeup or runs into the outfield fence it looks like he is on the precipice of completely throwing his spine out of alignment. I hope I’m wrong about this because we all want to see the best teams and players on the field when it counts most.

#3) Which leads us to the Steel City where the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to win the NL central and Andrew McCutchen is your NL MVP. I jumped on the Pirate bandwagon pretty hard last year and that didn’t go so well but I’m hoping this year is different because @thecutch22 is the Man and there is just something about the way he carries himself on the baseball field that inspires confidence in others. A .362 average with 18 HRs and 60 RBI doesn’t hurt either. Props also for having the coolest twitter handle in baseball, a title formally held by @JoeyBats19.

#4) Cole Hamels will be dealt away by the Philadelphia Phillies before the end of the trading deadline. There is no guarantee that he wants to resign with Philly anyway, even if they do end up throwing boatloads of money his way. The smart move is to trade him away for a couple of major league ready prospects in the hopes that these new bats can add depth to a lineup that once again features a healthy Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Can we talk for a second about how good the 2013 Dodgers rotation would be with both Clayton Kershaw and Hamels? The Dodgers, who were my preseason pick to go to the World Series, may have too wait another year because…

#5)  The San Fransisco Giants are going to win the NL pennant. For the record, I’m basing a significant portion of this prediction off of what I witnessed in Tuesday’s ASG. And what the heck happened to Melky Cabrera? When he was with the Yankees nobody believed that the Melkman was going to be anything more than a 4th outfielder at best. If the Giants can get anything out of Tim Lincecum, who posted a 3-10 record with a 6.42 ERA during the first half, during the rest of the season then they have to be considered the favorites to win the NL where they will face…

#6) The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. It’s like 2002 all over again. Except Mike Trout is faster than Darin Estrad and Mark Trumbo hits the ball an average of 100 feet further than Tim Salmon. And that’s before even mentioning Albert Pujols who, unbelievably, isn’t even the best player on the team right now. How long is his new contract again?

#7) Much to the disappointment of the entire state of Missouri, Robinson Cano will finish the season with the most homeruns in the AL. He already has 20 HRs and I’ll say he closes the year around 42. And for the record Kansas City, I wouldn’t have chosen Billy Butler for the HR Derby either.

Speaking of the derby,  for the 2013 ASG, MLB is going cut down the length of the HR Derby and add a skills challenge where multi tooled players like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper compete in a series of challenges like hitting the ball to the opposite field, robbing homerun balls, and a timed first to third sprint. And before all you baseball purists get your trading cards in a bunch, ask yourselves this question: does the HR Derby really need to take 3 hours? Wouldn’t one round of competition suffice?

#8) The Chicago Cubs will finish with the worst record in baseball but their young 1B Anthony Rizzo will win the NL Rookie of the Year Award over Bryce Harper. It’s going to take Theo Epstein a few years to right the ship but Cubs fans are accustomed to waiting. And with players like Rizzo and Starlin Castro providing a foundation for years to come, the future is bright on the Northside.

#9) At some point this season Bryce Harper will be sent back down to the minors. Bold right? And for Harper it’s not a question of talent but, in my opinion, the kid cannot be mentally prepared to handle a pennant race. He’s only 19 years old and when most of us were that age we couldn’t figure out how to get to class on time let alone lead a team to the MLB playoffs.

#10) And finally, months will pass and yet Tony La Russa will still be unable to offer up any sort of valid reason for why he chose not to start RA Dickey in the All-Star Game.

view from the AAA All-Star Game courtesy of @Joey_DAngelo

3 Simple Ways To Improve the MLB All-Star Game

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According to Commissioner Bud Selig MLB has never been healthier and while it’s easy to dispute this predictably obtuse claim that doesn’t mean that baseball did not enjoy itself an eventful and entertaining first half. Attendance is up across the country, there is an exciting crop of young talent making an immediate impact, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are 11 games over .500 for the first time since 1992.

But there are still certain improvements that could be made, especially to Tuesday night’s All-Star Game. A few years ago baseball decided to make the Midsummer Classic “count” for something by having the game determine home field in the World Series. Skeptics believe that this was not enough to raise the competitive level of the game and the change certainly hasn’t roused a significantly larger television audience. When you think about it, the ASG should be able to attract an enormous viewing audience especially considering that it’s the middle of July and there is absolutely nothing else on tv except for old Bones reruns and some new show called American Ninja Warrior.* 

Here are 3 very straightforward, albeit redundant, ways to improve MLB’s All-Star Game.

1) First pitch at 7pm instead of 8pm: Yeah, I understand this screws with West Coasties but you’ve been spoiled by 10AM NFL games for long enough now that it’s time for those of us back East to enjoy a primetime game in its entirety instead of falling asleep during the 7th inning stretch.

Personally I don’t buy all that crap about how we can’t expect the younger generation to appreciate America’s Pastime if the ASG is on well past their bedtime. Please. It’s summer. School has been out for weeks now and most kids who would even care to watch the game in the first place are already so hyped up on Red Bull and Arizona Iced Tea** that they’re going to be up well past their bedtimes anyway.

No, I want to the game to be moved to 7PM for parents of young children like myself who for 17 months now have found it quite difficult to stay up past 10PM because I’m either A) too tired from chasing around a 2.5 foot little person who finds a way to bump his head against the corner of every table in our house at least 30 times a day and who also happens to wet/crap his pants with the same frequency or B) already asleep on the coach. If the game were to start at 7 instead of 8 then there is a good chance I make it all the way to the end when they hold that awkward MVP ceremony where some Chevy exec gives away a fully loaded Corvette to a multimillionaire who probably already has a stable of high priced automobiles in the garage.

2) Eliminate the managers: Like most adults, coaches just end up screwing things up anyway. Want recent proof? Look no further than how Tony La Russa totally botched the NL starting pitcher decision by choosing Matt Cain over RA Dickey. No offense to Cain but RA Dickey needs to start this game. He’s a 37 year old knuckleballer with a 12-1 record and 2.40 ERA who is one of the main reason why the NY Mets continue to outperform all expectations and who also happens to be such a crazy Star Wars fanatic that he named his family minivan the Millenium Falcon. Has a knuckleballer ever started an ASG before? Take La Russa out of the picture and I guarantee the players pick Dickey over Cain.

And who wouldn’t want to follow along as a hidden camera records the goings on in the clubhouse as the players debate their starting lineups and batting orders? When I envision an ASG clubhouse without coaches and managers I see a surreal world that is equal parts Lord Of The Flies, ‘Keeping Up With The Kardashians’, and 12 Angry Men. And networks like Fox love reality tv because it costs nothing to produce and the ratings are usually solid. Throw a little Liev Schreiber narration in there and you’ve got yourself a 1/2 hour pre game show that people would much rather watch instead of a 90 minute televised intervention between George Brett and Tim McClelland hosted by Jim Gray.

The only question is, who holds the conch? If MLB is really going to ask each clubhouse to make these types of crucial decisions then one player on each side must emerge as the Henry Fonda type leader, someone with an understated charisma and humility who is also able to earn the respect of his peers. My vote in the AL goes to Curtis Granderson who just seems like the type of well grounded individual (his parents are both teachers after all) that would be able to take command of the room. For the NL team I’ll go with Buster Posey if for no other reason than he’s a catcher and those guys usually make the best leaders anyway.

3) Unlimited reentry for players in the starting lineup: No offense to Asdrubal Crabrera, who is a deserving All-Star, but the fine folks of Kauffman Stadium want to see as much of Derek Jeter as possible. By allowing Carbrera to pinch hit and then have Jeter reenter in the bottom of the inning gives fans the opportunity to see their favorite players determining the final outcome of the game.

I’m all for keeping it where every MLB team is represented by at least one player but that shouldn’t mean that all reserves see a significant amount of time on the field. This year is different because there are several ASG reserves, like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, that everyone wants to see get several at bats.

In the end, we’ll all probably be watching the MLB All-Star game but mostly because ‘American Ninja Warrior’ airs on Monday nights.

*No, seriously. Look it up. This is an actual show on network TV. I’ll be sorely disappointed if it weren’t a half hour montage dedicated to old Chris Farley SNL highlights.

** Someday soon scientists are going to reveal that too many energy drinks make you sterile which is going to be a real shame for extreme sport athletes as well as the actors in those bargain basement 5 Hour Energy commercials.

view from Kauffman Stadium site of the 2012 MLB ASG courtesy of @AllStarGame

All Quiet On The Wimbledon Front

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It’s been said plenty of times before, and with much greater eloquence and authority, but one of the things that makes Roger Federer such a fantastic, eternal champion is that he has always possessed a certain way of making everything he does on the tennis court look so damn easy. From his return of serve to his cross court forehand winners to the way he never looks out of breath even after chasing down volley after volley. There is even a disturbing consistency to the way he delicately brushes the hair from his eyes as if to show us all that we can only dream about being as in the moment as he has been over the course of his now 17 Grand Slam victories.

I exchanged a few messages with my buddy Chip who was in London during Sunday’s final and he said that the Britons weren’t all that disappointed by the end result given that the oddsmakers and daily rags had penciled down Federer as the heavy favorite over Andy Murray, the hometown hero from Highlands. Chip also went on to say that according to his Boston centric sports senses the reaction of Londoners after the 2012 Wimbledon final was very to similar to what happens in the Fens following a Red Sox regular season loss to the New York Yankees, an occurrence that I had to remind him was becoming much more frequent in 2012.* In simpler terms, Great Britain was proud of Murray for the way he battled through to the final and for this heartwarming, endearing post match speech but not all that surprised when the greatest of all time came out on top once again.

But before prattling on for far too long about a result and champion the context of which overwhelms most middling scribes and is better suited for a discussion amongst McEnroe’s, it’s much easier to instead focus our dwindling attention spans on something simpler like the behavior of the Wimbledon crowd and how it was predictably impossible for the fans at Centre Court to keep their personal allegiances secret. On this particular championship Sunday the vast majority of the crowd was pulling for the Brit Murray but there were also a healthy number of onlookers there to support Federer who is, with all due respect to Pete Sampras, arguably the greatest champion the London grass has ever seen.

So as the emotions of a 76 year old drought came within a few games/points/sets of reaching its crest, the partisan crowd managed to remain respectful and did not distract either player from the task at hand. This sort of restraint shown by the fans raises the all important question of why it is that a sport like tennis requires that the crowd maintain its silence while the point is being played yet there are other sports like baseball that do not ask for the same serenity? Is this because tennis is a much more difficult sport than baseball that it requires a much higher level of concentration or perhaps tennis players have been conditioned throughout the years to play without distraction? The easiest analogy to make is the art of bunting in baseball compared to the serve in tennis.

Arguing over which is the more difficult task to execute, the 120 mph serve or the sacrifice bunt, is both futile an unnecessary. Each requires more skill and precision than we mere mortals can even begin to fathom. A good serve, as with a sacrifice bunt, relies on not just speed but location as well. A hard serve is difficult to return only if placed properly. The same can be said about an effective sacrifice bunt. Depending on the situation a batter needs to direct the ball either down the first or third base line.** Just simply putting the ball in play does not guarantee that the batter will be able to advance the runner into scoring position just like hitting a 120mph serve does not necessarily result in an ace.

The other interesting parallel between these two skills is that both tennis and baseball players have a limited number of chances to accomplish their goal. Tennis players get two chances before committing a double fault while in baseball a hitter has two strikes to put a bunt in play, unless they’re being managed by a real old timer like my high school legion coach who would keep the bunt sign on throughout the at bat regardless of the count.***

So why is it that baseball players can handle the noise yet tennis players require such stupefying silence? The simple answer is history and tradition. Think about it this way, if there was no such thing as tennis etiquette and fans were allowed to make as much of a racket, no pun intended, as they wanted to eventually players would cease to be distracted by the noise. It just like basketball players adjusting to shoot free throws while staring at this guys face or Tiger Woods hitting a low cut 3 wood stinger with hundreds of fans snapping cell phone pictures.

But the rules and tradition of tennis do not allow for fans to interfere with the action. And it’s a good thing too because elite tennis players cannot handle the additional distraction. Take yesterday for example. What if some hooligan Andy Murray supporter wearing a Union Jack shirt with matching Dame Edna glasses were to have directed at Federer right as he was going into his ball toss a string of expletives that would even make EL James blush? For starters, the offending fan would have been thrown in the Tower of London to rot for all eternity alongside the ghosts of William Wallace and Oliver Cromwell. Secondly, due to the interruption Federer would have been thrown completely off his game and that laser like focus that has made him such a vaunted champion in the past would have been melted down to nothing more than a puddle of ineptitude that even Pippa**** woud have had a difficult time watching.  Because tennis is such a proper sport, and because no true athletes wants to be given an unfair advantage, Murray would have most likely conceded the point and even personally apologized to Roger for the poor behavior of the fans.

The reason why baseball fans don’t go silent just as the batter squares around is not because bunting is any less difficult than hitting a 120mph serve but rather because baseball players have been conditioned to perform through the distraction. In fact, it would probably be more off putting for major leaguers if the crowd did go silent during important moments of the game. Unless of course you are currently playing in Oakland.

*Before going ahead and accepting Chip’s analysis as the gospel please understand that he was drinking white wine while watching the championship at “Lady Di’s Place” which was either a reference to a former residence of the Princess of Whales or a gentleman’s club by Emirates Stadium.

**Back when Roberto Alomar was playing for those great Toronto Blue Jays teams in the early 90s, they would say that he would intentionally bunt the ball foul early in the count just to get the defense to shift out of position so that later in the at bat he would have more open space to put the ball in play. 

***FYI, there is nothing more embarrassing as a baseball player than failing to get the bunt down. Close second is getting picked off second base.

****Never forget.

NBA Hyperbole: The Most Fun, Exciting Finals Ever

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Thunder in 6. Oklahoma gets its first championship since the Josh Heupel led Sooners won the BCS Championship back in Y2K. Kevin Durant is your finals MVP outplaying a physically exhausted LeBron James who begins to look like Quasimodo after carrying his Heat teammates, including Dwyane Wade, through the Eastern Conference Finals. Basketball is a team sport after all and there is only so much the most physically talented player in the world can do on his own before requiring a little help from his friends. The Thunder Triumvirate of Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden have clearly defined roles and typically lack the sort of conceit that could inspire a hostile takeover and change Loud City from a republic to a dictatorship.

Speaking of an iron fist, OKC fans are lucky Michael Bloomberg is not in charge of their arena.  There’s a reason Thunder fans have gone gaga for their team and it’s a combination of vacant social calendars and the consumption of copious amounts of sugar and caffeine. Enter liberal meanie Mayor Mike and what would Loud City do without their super sized caramel macchiato from Angie’s Bakery or 850 calorie hushpuppy basket from Blue Harbor? It’ll take more than whole grains and green tea to quiet the Chesapeake Energy Arena as the Thunder will be able to ride their boisterous crowd all the way to the victory parade past the stockyards.

But the main event or marquee matchup that everyone is talking about is LeBron vs Durant. A quick glance at the tale of the tape and this showdown could be much closer than we even realize. Both are deadly scorers with LeBron being most lethal in the transition while KD is an absolute assassin coming off a high screen and occasionally stepping back to drain a demoralizing three. James is the superior athlete but Durant fans shouldn’t think this a slight as it is a unsubstantiated rumor that LeBron is in fact an android sent back in time by Cyberdyne as part of an elaborate gambling scheme involving John Connor, Bob Arum, and Top Rank Promotions. If they end up guarding one another then KD’s theater curtain length wingspan could very well block LeBron’s view of the basket but then again both players are such good passers that this series will probably come down to the supporting casts.

And this is where OKC has the advantage. The Thunder’s second unit, led by James Harden and his Karl Marx inspired facial hair, will be able to hold it’s own against even the Miami starting 5 which means LeBron and Wade cannot afford to take their normal rest for fear that the Thunder subs would run all over the Miami bench. By game 3, when the series shifts back to South Beach, the Big Three will need to borrow oxygen masks from the fine folks over at Del Boca Vista just to get through the half.

A lot of coaches and commentators have been arguing that OKC’s clunky bigs like Kendrick Perkins are going to have a time time keeping up with LeBron and Wade and if you can make the Thunder smaller then the matchup favors Miami. Serge Ibaka is not a clunky big and his shot blocking ability should make it harder for the Heat to get to the basket. That is of course if the refs let them play which is such a subjective proposition that even your local bookie isn’t entirely comfortable accepting your bet.

One thing’s for sure, these NBA Finals are bound to be compelling television. And if not, there’s always the Euro 2012.

view from Staples Center courtesy of @lookitskelvin

Old Balls And Sharp Elbows: Making A Case For The Boston Celtics

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All the arthritis and soft tissue damage in the world couldn’t help the Celtics overcome a virtuoso performance from LeBron James and company as the spry, agile legs of the Heat outlasted the decrepit Celtics 93-79 in game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Monday night. And while the geriatric wing of the NBA playoffs attempts to recover in time for game 2 Wednesday night, it’s important to note that in the hyper competitive world of pickup basketball, sometimes advanced age is a positive attribute. Of course, the NBA playoffs are a decididly different animal than your average game of shirts v skins but there is still an important case to be made for the veteran Boston Celtics in their series against the Miami Heat.

To begin with, old guys are much more efficient and effective stretchers. They usually manage to hit all the major muscles groups including the elusive yet essential latissimus dorsal. Anyone who has ever pulled a lat will tell you that the pain is absolutely excruciating. It’s as if someone jammed a dull butter knife in the center of your lower back. Old guys know this and will do whatever it takes to avoid such a debilitating injury, even if their warmup routine begins to resemble something out of The Cable Guy.

When it comes to a younger players approach to stretching perhaps Austin Milbarge said it best when he stated, “We mock what we don’t understand“. When you think about it, young hoopsters are like virgins. They simply do not understand that basketball, like sex, is much more of a marathon than a sprint. The only way to learn this is to first disappoint enough partners until you get to the point where you can’t find anyone else to play with and end up dribbling by yourself for hours. But back to basketball for a second, pull a lat muscle a few times and you’ll realize that proper planning and preparation prevents piss poor performance. The ancient Celtics realize this which is why guys like Ray Allen begin their warmup 4-5 hours before tipoff.

Speaking of Ray Allen, old guys know how to manage their injuries. Boston’s veteran sharpshooter has more spurs in his ankle than the entire San Antonio roster and can get zero lift on his jump shots, even free throws. Yet Ray is still out there playing through the pain, giving his team every opportunity to advance to the NBA FInals. Knee braces, rec specs, fish oil. Old guys will do whatever it takes to keep playing. That’s because time is of the essence and as players get closer to that dreaded expiration date they try to squeeze every last opportunity out of their weathered, atrophied bodies. Conversely, younger players think protective gear is a sign of weakness. You don’t see Chris Bosh out there with a kevlar vest do you?

Also, old guys understand their limitations and have a general disdain for unnecessary hustle.  Dive out of bounds for loose balls? No thanks. Chest bump a teammates after every made free throw? What a waste of energy. (Actually, this last one is not 100% true because if you watch the Boston Celtics during their starting lineup introductions they look like the cast from a Twyla Tharp musical.) In general, old guys like Paul Pierce know how to conserve energy for when it matters most like when taking a fade away 18 footer with a defender in his face or when trying to prevent LeBron from averaging 35 points/12 rebounds/7 assists this series. Weekend warriors are very similar to Pierce with the only exception being that it can be next to impossible to get old guys to play any kind of defense during these pickup games.

Old guys are direct with their feelings and not overtly passive aggressive. Take Kevin Garnett. He’s demanding of his teammates but in a fatherly sort of way where he’ll berate players in a productive almost clandestine fashion so as not to expose them to the ire and scrutiny of the camera. On the exact opposite end of the spectrum is the the Lebron James Mario Chalmers relationship. It’s hard not to feel bad for the young Miami point guard when LeBron is visibly up his you know what just about every time Chalmers makes a mistake. If you were a lip reader what you’d see Chalmers saying to LeBron is, “look I’m so sorry but I promise never to do it again so will you please stop making me feel bad in front of the national television audience“.

Old guys are not afraid to tell you what they want and could give a rats ass what you think about them. From passing them the ball on the outlet to calling for a high screen, weekend warriors have been around the block long enough where they simply no longer fear confrontation. Younger players are by nature too passive agressive. They won’t tell you what they want so much as bitch about you behind your back to your teammates.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, old guys are unaware of their surroundings and rarely unnerved by the spotlight. Veteran basketball players are like champion race horses. You wont see I’ll Have Another staring off into the infield paddock during the Belmont Stakes looking for a nice unattached Long Island bred filly to cozy up to after the race. Vets like Pierce, Garnett, and Allen have seen it all before and will not be bashful in light of intense media scrutiny and pressure.

With LeBron and the Heat we just don’t know. One of the knocks against the best basketball player in the world is that he is just too sensitive and cares too much about what other people think. It’s probably an unfair criticism but take a look at LeBron next time something goes wrong. He always seems to be staring off into the first few rows of the stands, like he’s constantly seeking approval from Pat Riley, Mav Carter, or maybe even Jimmy Buffett. Again, older guys don’t look around cause time if of the essence and they don’t care about what anyone else thinks. During pickup games, do you really think your CPA Frank is distracted by the fact that the health club hasn’t restocked the men’s locker room with fresh towels? Of course not. That’s because Frank is old and old guys don’t care if they have fresh towels because they would just assume drip dry even if it means they’ll have to expose themselves in front of unassuming fellow club members on their way to the racquetball courts.

Old guys don’t care which is why the Boston Celtics have a chance against the Miami Heat.

view from Spurs/Thunder game 2 courtesy of @lilmiggs47