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At the Intersection of Sports and Culture

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Super Bowl Squares: A Statistical Breakdown

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I’m usually not one for math, in fact single variable calculus was the sole reason my freshman GPA hovered around the Mendoza Line. But since every other Super Bowl XLV angle has been exhausted, I figured a statistical breakdown of Super Bowl scores by quarter gave VMS the best chance of creating a somewhat authentic perspective. And who doesn’t like to buy a few SB squares? Think about all of the bars and private parties that have some kind of grid filled up while people wait to see what numbers they draw. (This coming from a guy who normally ends up with a nothing but a whole bunch of “2’s” and “8’s”.)

So here is a statistical breakdown of Super Bowl Squares (numbers that give you the best chance of winning) plus my Super Bowl XLV predictions by quarter.

Square Frequency/Odds First Quarter

“0”: 41/47%, “3”: 21/24%, “7”: 18/20%, “4”: 5/6%, “6”: 2/2%

XLV 1st Quarter Prediction: Steelers 7 Packers 3

Steelers take the opening kickoff all the way down the field for a Rashard Mendenhall 3 yard TD run. Aaron Rodgers wobbles off the field after a huge 3rd down hit by James Harrison which leads to an awkward 10 seconds of dead air while Troy Aikman tries to remember Super Bowl XXVIII.

Square Frequency/Odds Second Quarter

“0”: 26/30%, “3”: 17/19%, “7”: 17/19%, “4”: 9/10%, “6”: 9/10%

XLV 2nd Quarter Prediction: Steelers 14 Packers 10

And now for the Bridgestone Halftime Spectacular featuring Fergie, the guy who kinda looks like Lou Diamond Phillips, and that dude from that Obama song!!!!

Square Frequency/Odds 3rd Quarter

“7”: 20/23%, “0”: 18/20%, “3”: 12/14%, “4”: 11/13%, “6”: 8/9%

XLV 3rd Quarter Prediction: Packers 24 Steelers 17

Halftime adjustments allow Green Bay to storm ahead during the 3rd quarter. Speaking of storms, can sportswriters covering the Super Bowl in Dallas please stop talking about how bad the weather is? The Northeast has been bombarded with over 60 inches of snow since Christmas.  It’s North Texas’ own fault for not listening to the Mayan Calendar.

Square Frequency/Odds 4th Quarter

“7”: 19/22%, “0”: 12/14%, “4”: 11/13%, “1”: 10/11%, “6”: 10/11%

XLV Final Score: Steelers 27 Packers 24

This game will come down to the team with the most experience/clutch quarterback.  With a 3rd Super Bowl ring, Ben Roethlisberger now enters the discussion as the most accomplished current QB alongside Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Expect TMZ to be the first to break the story that Big Ben was in fact celebrating on the plane ride home to Pittsburgh, leading to a national news story which remains in the headlines until the start of spring training.

view from inside Cowboys Stadium courtesy of @danpbell

High Five w/ Larry Brown (the Blogger not the Coach)

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As Jerry Seinfeld once said: “Slapping hands is the lowest form of male primate ritual.” We here at VMS fully support the high five and believe it has a clear and important place in this world.  In our latest set of 5 questions, we asked Larry Brown, editor in chief of larrybrownsports.com, what he thinks about the UCLA Bruins and the business of blogging in general.

VMS: You have the same name as the legendary basketball coach who once led one of your favorite teams the UCLA Bruins to the Final Four. So tell us, are you two really just the same person?

LBS: I’m his father. You haven’t seen the Jr. suffix in his name? Actually, despite being a carpetbagger, the other LB doesn’t get the credit he deserves for being as good of a coach as he is. Did anyone take a less talented team to an NBA title than Brown did with the Pistons?

VMS: Who wins a three point shooting contest: Don MacLean, Tracy Murray, or Kevin Love?

LBS: How about Jason Kapono? He and Reggie Miller have to be the best shooters to come out of UCLA. But Kevin Love would win between those three, who knew he had that in his game?

VMS: The term “blogger” continues to carry such negative connotations. At what point do you think sports bloggers will separate themselves from the other miscreants of American society?

LBS: I don’t think bloggers are thought of as being as dirty as they were 2-3 years ago. I really just think people categorize sites. Do they enjoy them or not? Do they find the site respectable? If the answer to those two questions is “yes,” then I don’t think people care whether or not the writer is categorized as a “blogger” or not.

VMS: How often do you find yourself following or writing about a story that you may have very little interest in but that you know your readers are going to want to hear more about?

LBS: Pretty infrequently. We cover stuff that we enjoy writing about or following, for the most part.

VMS: Hypothetically speaking, what’s the one sports story that you would love to break?

LBS: The story of the first sports blog to be bought out for an eight-figure price.

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Thanks to Larry Brown for taking the time out of his busy blogging schedule to answer a few of our menial questions and please wish him well as he pursues that eight-figure payday.

view of Pauley Pavilion courtesy of @wahooslim

Maybe I Could Play Big Ten College Basketball

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For years, close friends have been making fun of me for watching an inordinate amount of Big Ten basketball. I live in the northeast so one would think I should be predisposed to the ACC or Big East which is not the case. Last night I watched Wisconsin beat Purdue 66-59. I think part of the reason I enjoy watching Big Ten, especially Wisconsin, basketball is because, of all the programs in Division I college basketball, I have the best chance of suiting up and playing for the Badgers.

Please, before you think I have become completely delusional understand that I am only being partially serious. In reality, I know I couldn’t play basketball for Wisconsin.  The apex of my basketball career took place during my junior year of high school when I averaged double digit rebounds and dated a senior girl who, by the way, would eventually leave me for one of my teammates.

But back to the matter at hand. There are two main reasons why I think Wisconsin is the type of DI program where I could play.

Reason #1: I can set screens. I’m also good at rolling to the basket after setting a screen which is a requisite skill in a Bo Ryan offense.

Reason #2: I can box out.  Granted, at 6’3″ I would probably be boxing out opposing shooting guards or small forwards which could be a problem because I have slow feet and my man would be both bigger and stronger.  So actually securing a rebound could be an issue but I can tell you that it would not be for a lack of effort. My fitness would probably have to improve as well but with Wisconsin it’s all about the system and I have faith that Coach Ryan would put me in the best possible position to succeed.

There you have it. Two reasons why I could play Division I college basketball. My not so secret desire is that someone affiliated with the Wisconsin program reads this post and takes me up on my offer. It’s at least worth a pickup game or two.

view of the Kohl Center courtesy of @mdrob89

Media Day to be Replaced by a Massive Scrabble Tournament

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Here is a quick view from Reed Arena during last night’s Texas/Texas A&M college basketball showdown.  College Station is an easy three hour drive from Fort Worth, site of radio row for Super Bowl XLV. Today is media day, where players and coaches parade themselves in full regalia onto podiums and in front of microphones, prepared to answer the same questions from the same reporters over and over again.  It has been clear for many years now that media day is in need of a major face-lift. Here are just a few of my recommendations on how to improve this rather monotonous tradition.

1 – All interviews should be conducted on twitter.  This would allow anyone, not just media members with press passes, to ask questions and players could then pick and choose which ones they want to answer.  Twitter has also become a fairly candid forum for professional athletes to bear their souls, perhaps it has something to do with the 140 characters or less.

2 – If the NFL is going to insist on some sort of mass gathering, they should consider organizing the field so that opposing players share tables a la two heavyweight boxers during a tail of the tape press conference.  And you could get really creative with the pairings.  Think about Aaron Rodgers sitting alongside James Harrison or Charles Woodson next to Hines Ward.  Of course you may have a tougher time drawing an audience to Chad Clifton and Aaron Smith but I think you get the point.

3 – Media day should be replaced by a massive scrabble or words with friends tournament.  Nothing too taxing but some sort of informal competition that will allow fans to see another side of their favorite players.  Originally, I thought it would be fun for these athletes to compete in some sort of physical skills challenge but figured the risk of injury was much too high. A harmless battle of wits seems like the best remaining option plus it might be really illuminating to see which athletes have the most extensive vocabularies and who struggles to string together a coherent sequence of consonants and vowels.

So what do you think?  Any chance the NFL takes me up on any of these suggestions?

view from Reed Arena courtesy of @nathancain

An Outsiders Guide to Super Bowl XLV

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As Super Bowl week commences, and all of football envelops Dallas like a swarm of locusts, it’s important for those of us not heading down to Texas to take a second and appreciate how fortunate we will be to watch the big game from the comforts of our home environs. Here are three simple reasons why going to the Super Bowl is an overrated experience. (Editors note: I myself have never gone to a Super Bowl. If there is anyone out there who would like to offer me a ticket to the game I would be more than happy to take you up on the wonderful opportunity.)

Reason #1: The Home Entertainment System – It’s easier, more entertaining to watch the Super Bowl on television than from the stands. At home, in front of a flat screen, our greatest weapon is the remote control. Anyone who has ever been to a football game will tell you that with all the starting and stopping it’s impossible to maintain a consistent flow of on the field action. The Super Bowl, with all of its extra ad time/halftime theatrics, is regular season distraction multiplied by a factor of ten. At least at home we can switch channels or use the bathroom without having to wait in line.

Reason #2: The Crowd – It seems like the majority of Super Bowl tickets are usually dispersed amongst high profile corporate types and fringe fans who really don’t care about the game itself.  At home, you can choose who you want to watch the game with. At the game, you could be stuck next to Bill and Kevin from accounting who treat the whole Super Bowl experience as if it where some kind of extended “hall pass”. At least at home you can just simply not invite those friends who you know are going to drink too much too fast and then spend the entire second half talking on their cellphones.

Reason #3: Cost – I heard somewhere that the average household income in Wisconsin is something like 50K.  A trip to the Super Bowl in Dallas will probably cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $2500 per person. Using this arithmetic, for a husband and wife from Green Bay to go the the Super Bowl it is going to cost them roughly 10-15% of their annual income. That’s a whole lot of money which could have been spent on something much more practical like say a new snowmobile or perhaps an entire case of insect repellent.

And the list goes on and on.  Point is this, don’t feel too bad if you’re unable to make it to the big game, chances are you’ll have a much better time watching from your sofa.

view of Aloha Stadium courtesy of @JaymesSong