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At the Intersection of Sports and Culture

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Super Bowl Squares: A Statistical Breakdown

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I’m usually not one for math, in fact single variable calculus was the sole reason my freshman GPA hovered around the Mendoza Line. But since every other Super Bowl XLV angle has been exhausted, I figured a statistical breakdown of Super Bowl scores by quarter gave VMS the best chance of creating a somewhat authentic perspective. And who doesn’t like to buy a few SB squares? Think about all of the bars and private parties that have some kind of grid filled up while people wait to see what numbers they draw. (This coming from a guy who normally ends up with a nothing but a whole bunch of “2’s” and “8’s”.)

So here is a statistical breakdown of Super Bowl Squares (numbers that give you the best chance of winning) plus my Super Bowl XLV predictions by quarter.

Square Frequency/Odds First Quarter

“0”: 41/47%, “3”: 21/24%, “7”: 18/20%, “4”: 5/6%, “6”: 2/2%

XLV 1st Quarter Prediction: Steelers 7 Packers 3

Steelers take the opening kickoff all the way down the field for a Rashard Mendenhall 3 yard TD run. Aaron Rodgers wobbles off the field after a huge 3rd down hit by James Harrison which leads to an awkward 10 seconds of dead air while Troy Aikman tries to remember Super Bowl XXVIII.

Square Frequency/Odds Second Quarter

“0”: 26/30%, “3”: 17/19%, “7”: 17/19%, “4”: 9/10%, “6”: 9/10%

XLV 2nd Quarter Prediction: Steelers 14 Packers 10

And now for the Bridgestone Halftime Spectacular featuring Fergie, the guy who kinda looks like Lou Diamond Phillips, and that dude from that Obama song!!!!

Square Frequency/Odds 3rd Quarter

“7”: 20/23%, “0”: 18/20%, “3”: 12/14%, “4”: 11/13%, “6”: 8/9%

XLV 3rd Quarter Prediction: Packers 24 Steelers 17

Halftime adjustments allow Green Bay to storm ahead during the 3rd quarter. Speaking of storms, can sportswriters covering the Super Bowl in Dallas please stop talking about how bad the weather is? The Northeast has been bombarded with over 60 inches of snow since Christmas.  It’s North Texas’ own fault for not listening to the Mayan Calendar.

Square Frequency/Odds 4th Quarter

“7”: 19/22%, “0”: 12/14%, “4”: 11/13%, “1”: 10/11%, “6”: 10/11%

XLV Final Score: Steelers 27 Packers 24

This game will come down to the team with the most experience/clutch quarterback.  With a 3rd Super Bowl ring, Ben Roethlisberger now enters the discussion as the most accomplished current QB alongside Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Expect TMZ to be the first to break the story that Big Ben was in fact celebrating on the plane ride home to Pittsburgh, leading to a national news story which remains in the headlines until the start of spring training.

view from inside Cowboys Stadium courtesy of @danpbell

Media Day to be Replaced by a Massive Scrabble Tournament

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Here is a quick view from Reed Arena during last night’s Texas/Texas A&M college basketball showdown.  College Station is an easy three hour drive from Fort Worth, site of radio row for Super Bowl XLV. Today is media day, where players and coaches parade themselves in full regalia onto podiums and in front of microphones, prepared to answer the same questions from the same reporters over and over again.  It has been clear for many years now that media day is in need of a major face-lift. Here are just a few of my recommendations on how to improve this rather monotonous tradition.

1 – All interviews should be conducted on twitter.  This would allow anyone, not just media members with press passes, to ask questions and players could then pick and choose which ones they want to answer.  Twitter has also become a fairly candid forum for professional athletes to bear their souls, perhaps it has something to do with the 140 characters or less.

2 – If the NFL is going to insist on some sort of mass gathering, they should consider organizing the field so that opposing players share tables a la two heavyweight boxers during a tail of the tape press conference.  And you could get really creative with the pairings.  Think about Aaron Rodgers sitting alongside James Harrison or Charles Woodson next to Hines Ward.  Of course you may have a tougher time drawing an audience to Chad Clifton and Aaron Smith but I think you get the point.

3 – Media day should be replaced by a massive scrabble or words with friends tournament.  Nothing too taxing but some sort of informal competition that will allow fans to see another side of their favorite players.  Originally, I thought it would be fun for these athletes to compete in some sort of physical skills challenge but figured the risk of injury was much too high. A harmless battle of wits seems like the best remaining option plus it might be really illuminating to see which athletes have the most extensive vocabularies and who struggles to string together a coherent sequence of consonants and vowels.

So what do you think?  Any chance the NFL takes me up on any of these suggestions?

view from Reed Arena courtesy of @nathancain

An Outsiders Guide to Super Bowl XLV

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As Super Bowl week commences, and all of football envelops Dallas like a swarm of locusts, it’s important for those of us not heading down to Texas to take a second and appreciate how fortunate we will be to watch the big game from the comforts of our home environs. Here are three simple reasons why going to the Super Bowl is an overrated experience. (Editors note: I myself have never gone to a Super Bowl. If there is anyone out there who would like to offer me a ticket to the game I would be more than happy to take you up on the wonderful opportunity.)

Reason #1: The Home Entertainment System – It’s easier, more entertaining to watch the Super Bowl on television than from the stands. At home, in front of a flat screen, our greatest weapon is the remote control. Anyone who has ever been to a football game will tell you that with all the starting and stopping it’s impossible to maintain a consistent flow of on the field action. The Super Bowl, with all of its extra ad time/halftime theatrics, is regular season distraction multiplied by a factor of ten. At least at home we can switch channels or use the bathroom without having to wait in line.

Reason #2: The Crowd – It seems like the majority of Super Bowl tickets are usually dispersed amongst high profile corporate types and fringe fans who really don’t care about the game itself.  At home, you can choose who you want to watch the game with. At the game, you could be stuck next to Bill and Kevin from accounting who treat the whole Super Bowl experience as if it where some kind of extended “hall pass”. At least at home you can just simply not invite those friends who you know are going to drink too much too fast and then spend the entire second half talking on their cellphones.

Reason #3: Cost – I heard somewhere that the average household income in Wisconsin is something like 50K.  A trip to the Super Bowl in Dallas will probably cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $2500 per person. Using this arithmetic, for a husband and wife from Green Bay to go the the Super Bowl it is going to cost them roughly 10-15% of their annual income. That’s a whole lot of money which could have been spent on something much more practical like say a new snowmobile or perhaps an entire case of insect repellent.

And the list goes on and on.  Point is this, don’t feel too bad if you’re unable to make it to the big game, chances are you’ll have a much better time watching from your sofa.

view of Aloha Stadium courtesy of @JaymesSong

Twitter Will be the End of the NFLPA

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Is it possible to have a March Madness without Gonzaga? After St. Mary’s disposed of the Zags 73-71 in Spokane last evening, it has become more and more likely that America’s Cinderella will need to win their conference tournament if they hope to have any chance of “dancing” this spring. Long are the days of John Stockton, Dan Dickau, and Casey Calvary.

The other big news out of the Pacific Northwest is the ongoing twitter feud between Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie.  To make a long story short, Cromartie has threatened to “smash” Hasselbeck’s face in over comments the quarterback  posted, then erased, on twitter that questioned Cromartie’s overall “grasp” of the current labor standoff facing the NFL this offseason. One thing’s for sure, players against players is exactly the type of behavior NFL owners were banking on as they prepare to negotiate the next collective bargaining agreement.

Does the NFL truly face the possibility of a lockout? It seems like there is much too much money involved to just simply postpone, or even cancel the 2011 season.  With television ratings at an all time high, the league has way too much momentum to just simply shut itself down.  I’m hoping a deal is struck soon because Sundays just wouldn’t be the same without a health dose of football.

view from Gonzaga/SMS courtesy of @neilstover

Jay Cutler Needs to Grow a Pair of Crutches

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The Madhouse on Madison was rocking last night during the Chicago Bulls 92-83 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks.  With the win, the Bulls improved their record to 31-14 and now enjoy a healthy 13 game lead in the Central Division.  Derrick Rose is the clear frontrunner for league MVP and when Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer both return from injury, the Bulls will emerge as a team to beat in the Eastern Conference.

I’m sort of surprised so many fans were in attendance at the United Center last night.  I mean, only 24 hours had passed since the Bears were defeated by the Packers in the NFC Championship game and I figured fans would still be marching down Michigan Ave burning effigies of Jay Cutler.  Does yesterdays MRI, which revealed a Grade II MCL sprain, make Bears fans feel any better about the heart of their signal caller?  Have those current, and former, NFL players who called out Cutler for not “gutting out” the injury now since recanted their earlier statements?

Perhaps Frank Deford summed it up best regarding our immediate response to the “Cutler Identity”: “It’s terrible.  We move entirely too fast without thinking”. I agree with Deford that we, media and fans, are sometimes too quick to jump to conclusions.  Twitter and Facebook only exacerbate this 21st century tendency.  Perhaps Jay Cutler, and his wounded knee, would have been treated much more delicately before the advent of the interent and ESPN.  But, as one of the many fans who were too quick to question the severity of his injury, where’s the fun in that?

view of the United Center courtesy of @gneri