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Augustalytics: The Masters by the Numbers

April 8, 2014 by Jon

Augustalytics: The Masters by the Numbers by Jonathan Lord

Sports was once behind politics and the stock market when it came to statistical analysis but those day are long gone now as simple math is the driving force behind many of the important decisions made by both athletes and front office executives. Professional golfers have always enjoyed playing the numbers. From pacing off yardages to factoring in handicaps, a round of 18 would not be complete without a little remedial calculus. Fans of golf can make analytics work for them too and with the 78th Masters Tournament set to tee off later this week, now’s a good time to take a peak inside the abacus at Augusta National to determine who will wear the green jacket next.

The Fountain of Truth

The average age of the previous 77 Masters champions is 32.66. There are 8 players in this year’s field between the ages of 32-33: Graham DeLaet (32), Nick Watney (32), Brandt Snedeker (33), Brandon de Jonge (33), Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano (33), Justin Rose (33), Matt Jones (33) and reigning champ Adam Scott (33). Only Rose (’13 U.S. Open) and Scott (’13 Masters) have previously won a major championship while 2014 represents the first trip down Magnolia Lane for both DeLaet and de Jonge.

Around the Block and Back Again

Before leveraging the farm on either DeLaet or de Jonge consider this: only 3 players have won the Masters on their very first attempt: Horton Smith ’34*, Gene Sarazen ’35 and Fuzzy Zoeller ’79. 2014’s roster of 24 neophytes is an accomplished group with the likes of Harris English, Jordan Spieth, Victor Dubuisson, Jimmy Walker and Patrick Reed. If history has taught us anything it’s that even the most talented golfers require a few laps around Amen Corner before reaching Augusta nirvana.

The average number of starts before a first victory is 6. With names like Hunter Mahan, Rory McIlroy, Ryan Moore, Louis Oosthuizen, and Bubba Watson the list of players entering their 6th Masters in 2014 reads like a portfolio of blue chippers. Out of this group only Moore and Mahan have yet to win a major championship.

The player with the most starts at Augusta National without a victory is Ernie Els with 19 followed by Jim Furyk (17) and Lee Westwood (16).

*Horton Smith deserves the asterisk since 1934 was the year of the first Masters.

The World Is Flat But A Golf Ball is Round

Golf is a global game but the list of countries represented by Masters champions is not entirely indicative of the diversity of the sport today. The United States is way out in front with 57 winners. South Africa (5), Spain (4), England (3) and Germany/West Germany (2) are the only other countries with multiple green jackets while Australia, Argentina, Fiji, Canada, Wales and Scotland have one each.

This year’s field of 97 represents 22 different countries from around the world including Thailand (Thongchai Jaidee) and the Netherlands (Joost Luiten). Not surprisingly the U.S. leads the field with 44 entrants. England is a distant second with 7 and Australia rounding out the top three with 7.

Even though Americans comprise close to half of the entire field at the 2014 Masters, 4 of the last 6 champions hail from outside the States including the first ever victories for the continents of South America (Cabrera ’08) and Australia (Scott ’13). A player from Asia has never won the Masters*, which, if the trend continues, could be good news for the 4 Korean players in the field: Sang-Moon Bae, K.J. Choi, Chang-Woo Lee and Y.E. Yang.

*Vijay Singh, the 2000 Masters champion is from Fiji, which is technically part of Oceania.

Caddying For Position

In the 16 years since Tiger Woods won his first of four Masters in 1997 by a historic margin of 12 strokes the average margin of victory is roughly 2 strokes. In that time, only 6 eventual champs have held a lead heading into Sunday with the largest leads belonging to Vijay Singh (’00) and Tiger (’05) who were both 3 shots clear of the field before the final round. In 2011 Charl Schwartzel overcame the largest Sunday deficit when he came back from 4 shots behind 3rd round leader Rory McIlroy who for his part imploded on the back 9 finishing with a final round 80.

Fast starts aren’t necessarily indicative of success as the last wire-to-wire winner at Augusta was Raymond Floyd in ’76*.

*Trevor Immelman had a share of the lead after round 1 in ’08.

Climbing the Corporate Ladder

Since ’97, 7 of 16 champions (7 of 10 if you don’t count any of the wins by Woods or Phil Mickelson) came from outside the top ten in the world rankings including long shots like Zach Johnson (#56 in OWGR in ’07) and Angel Cabrera (#69 in ’09). Potentially signs of trouble for the current top ten of Scott, Henrik Stenson, Jason Day, Mickelson, Rose, McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Z. Johnson and D. Johnson.

A Clearing in the Distance

Since the latest round of “Tiger-Proofing” prior to the 2006 tournament when Augusta National was lengthened to 7,435 yards, only 2 champions (Cabrera and Watson) have finished the year in the top ten in total driving distance on the PGA Tour.  That’s bad news this year for Bubba, DJ and DeLaet. Surprisingly, during that same period of time no winner has gone on to finish the season in the top ten in total putting which means it might be better to be ‘bearish’ when it comes to the chances of Graeme McDowell, Matt Every and Russell Henley.

Azalea and Firethorn*

 Most majors are won or lost Sunday on the back 9. When looking at the final round scores of the past 8 champions since ’06, the recipe for this year’s Masters becomes much clearer. Since ’06, the last 8 winners were a combined -13 on the two par 5s on the back 9, #13 and #15. Schwartzel is the only player not to have birdied #13 while just Johnson and Immelman failed to post a red number on #15.

Even more astounding is that over that same period of time, the 12 runners up (including ties for second and playoff losers) were a combined -6 on #13 and #15. If by Sunday afternoon you’ve yet to handicap the leaderboard then look no further then the took back 9 par 5s.

*Which reminds me of a little game I like to play called hole at Augusta National or “Game Of Thrones” character?

Augusta Baby Augusta!

 With Tiger out, Rory McIlroy has been installed as the odds on favorite to win the 2014 Masters at 9-1. But before dialing up the bookie realize that last time the line got it right with the favorite was Woods back in ’06.

And finally, since golf, like every other sport, is about streaks, it’s hard to find an equation that takes into full account the form of a golfer heading into Augusta. Ultimately, the 2014 Masters champ will be determined by who hits the most quality shots/putts and unfortunately, numbers can’t always predict the future. Or can they???

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Emailing The Masters

April 8, 2012 by Jon

Since the Masters podcast with my buddy Chip was such a huge success, we decided to follow it up with a lengthy email exchange during Easter Sunday’s final round. Thanks once again to Grantland for the idea. What would fledgling sports bloggers do without you?

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Jon: Hello friends, and a Happy Easter to you and yours. I don’t know about you but when I think about all of the sins Jesus died for tops on that list must include the decision to avoid your wife and kid(s) during the 6 plus hours of Masters Sunday coverage. So really, when you think about it, it’s all Jim Nantz’s fault after all.

Jon: By the way, on the subject of whether or not they sell alcoholic beverages at Augusta National, now that I know what to look for I’m seeing green plastic cups everywhere. All sorts of corporate types double fisting. Which reminds me about a story I heard this week where a lot of Fortune 500 big wigs pay runners to sprint to a desirable spot on the golf course where they want there fold out chair set up b/c at Augusta National it’s first come first serve and once the chair is down no one is going to mess with it. I’m so desperate to go to the Masters that one day I might try to become a corporate runner. Although, the more I think about it the more it would probably look like this.

Chip: Do you think Tiger has a full slate of post round family activities planned?

Jon: Louis Oosthuizen w/ a remarkable double eagle on the 2nd hole. First albatross on #2 in Masters history. Oosthuizen now at -10, two shots in front of Hanson and Mickelson. If this keeps up, before it’s over I wonder how many times I’m going to misspell Oosthuizen?

Jon: Meanwhile, in Baltimore Jason Hammel has a no hitter through 7 against the Twins. Could be the greatest Orioles moment in the last 15 years.

Jon: And just like that, the no hit bid in Baltimore ends. Darn you Justin Morneau!!! I should have kept my fingers quiet.

Chip: Hanson, not hot right now. Hanson.

Jon: Mickelson knocks his tee shot at #4 off the stands, could be an early turning point on Sunday. Also CBS just showed the Adam Scott ace on #16 and it’s nice to see that caddy Stevie Williams has yet to find his undershirt.

Chip: Wow! That is all I have. Wow!

Chip: PS, Who picked out Phil’s wardrobe? #wouldplayaugustainadress

Jon: Mickelson finishes w/ a triple bogey at #4 and falls to -5, 4 shots behind the leader Oosty. What an embarrassment to all of us left handed hackers out there judging these professionals golfers from the comfort and anonymity of twitter. [Read more…]

Our Totally Fictional Round at Augusta – Part III of III

April 7, 2011 by Jon

In honor of The Masters, myself and VMS contributor Dave are taking you through Augusta National, hole by hole, playing the course as if we were part of the field. Part III includes holes 13-18.

Jon: So, while we wait to tee off, who’s going to win the 2011 Masters anyway? My money is on either Luke Donald or Phil Mickelson.

Dave: I got Dustin Johnson , Rory McIlroy, and Tiger Woods. Basically all the favorites.

No. 13 “Azalea” Par 5 , 510 yards

Jon: End of Amen Corner, my prayers go unanswered after a lost opportunity to reach the green in two once I shank my drive towards Atlanta. I’ll take a solid 9.

Dave: Can I just tee off from the pine straw on this one?  So much was made about Phil’s amazing 2nd last year, but not enough is made of him pushing the eagle past the hole.  I’m on in 6 here (after 5 from the straw).  And, for good measure, I make my putt for the double.  Because that’s the difference between Phil and me.  And that I read the greens in Braille.

Jon: Funny, I totally forgot that Phil missed that eagle putt. Give him a break though, last year was a win for the family.

Dave: Great win for Phil and the whole family.  Now, if only they could find a proper tailor for daddy.

Jon: That was pretty low mister and way too easy. Moving on to 14. your honor your honor.

No. 14 “Chinese Fir” Par 4, 440 yards

Dave: “The primary defense on this bunkerless par four is a terraced putting surface that drops significantly from left to right.”  This is how the Masters folks describe Chinese Fir.  Hahahaha!  More putts than approach shots here, which wouldn’t be scarce.  My honor is besmirched.  9.

Jon: I get the same feeling reading the hole descriptions from The Masters website that I do reading the safety procedures on a plane. In both cases, if and when things go wrong I am going to panic. No sand no problem. Give me a 6. Ready to dance with the Firethorn?

No. 15 “Firethorn” Par 5, 530 yards

Dave: These holes either sound like painful rashes, or old-timey names for debutantes. Have at it.

Jon: Well, I have dreams about reaching this green in two, giving myself a chance to putt for eagle as the gallery at 16 looks on. But my eyes are definitely bigger than my stomach and I’ll have to live with the disappointment of another errant tee shot and water hazard to boot. Give me an 8.

Dave: I, too, have packed my trucks.  Unavoidable, I’m afraid.  When I hear “reachable Par 5”, I’m thinking in 5.  In this case, though, I’m on in 7, after 2 well-intentioned hybrids into the pond.  (Still haven’t figured out how to line up that club yet.  It’s like it was designed by aliens.)  The green seems “straight forward”.  Three putts, and I’ve got my first double digit hole.  10.

Jon: No way you go 14 holes before a double digit score. You’re just not that good a golfer.

Dave: I don’t tell you how to design your fantasies, do I? Next hole is both a rash AND a chaste debutante: Redbud.  Go!

No. 16 “Redbud” Par 3, 170 yards

Jon: I love Verne Lundquist sooo much. I would pay him gobs of money to announce me washing the dishes. Believe it or not, I’m putting for birdie on this one. And, after a close miss, I tap in for par.

Dave: All this water here scares me.  I try to play it safe and aim for the left of the green.  Too bad I scull a screamer WAY left.  It does clear the drink, though, and I’m pitching from the Redbuds– which happen to be beautiful up close.  I’m on in 4, with a nice two-putt up the hill.  No hazards and no 3-putts.  My round is made here.  Now where is that drink girl?

Jon: You mean drink boy right? Did you forgot that this is Augusta and that the lady folk are frowned upon in these parts? Show us the way around 17.

No. 17 “Nandina” Par 4, 440 yards

Dave: Before we tuck into Nandina (rare exotic disease AND the given name of my Ukrainian maternal great-grandmother), a little history for you. Now, to my dear Nandina. This one is framed around the majestic Eisenhower Tree.  To avoid the imposing greenside bunkers, I– unwisely– choose to play up the left side.  In and out of my forest, I’ve got a clear shot to the front of the green from about 100.  I hit a wedge too fat, and I’m in the right bunker anyway.  From there, it’s a little more misery: out in 3, 3 more putts.  Another 10. This course is a lot easier on X-Box

Jon: I am so underwhelmed by 17. Feels out of place between the majesty of 16 and grace of 18. But, I’m sure golf historians would tell me that many a Masters has been won or lost on 17. Blah blah blah blah blah. Give me a 7 and bring on the grace!

No. 18 “Holly” Par 4, 465 yards

Jon: Before we tee of we should take a moment to thank Billy Payne and all other members for allowing us to write about our totally fictional round at Augusta. Your generosity knows no bounds.

Dave: Nor, I imagine, does the nuanced sense of humor of the entire Masters contingent.  Thanks.

Jon: I finish 18 with a sand wedge and a snowman. As I exit the green, Elin Nordegren is there to congratulate me on a well played round. Eat your heart out Tiger! (Just kidding. Can we still be friends?)

Dave: I just took the “virtual flyover” on the Masters website.  I can’t believe how narrow the landing is here.  Seems impossible, even for the pros.  I guess they really have to earn it Again, I can’t hit driver here (slice), so I’m spitting into the wind with my hybrid up the hill.  “Near in 4”, on in 6, down in 9.  Which happens to be one third of the number of different financial services companies who will advertise during Masters Sunday.  Depressing for those of us whose finances aren’t quite eligible for servicing.

Jon: Its The Masters. Everyone is eligible for servicing!!

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Final Scores: Jon 120 Dave 139

views from Augusta National courtesy of @RickieFowlerPGA and @bubbawatson


Our Totally Fictional Round at Augusta National – Part II of III

April 6, 2011 by Jon

In honor of the Masters, myself and VMS contributor Dave are taking you through Augusta National, hole by hole, playing the course as if we were part of the field. Part II includes holes 7-12. Look for Part I here and Part III later today or tomorrow morning.

Hole No. 7 “Pampas” Par 4, 450 yards

Jon: What exactly is a Pampas?

Dave: I believe Pampas was an old wooden ship used during Civil War times.

Jon: Ok, good, so you have no idea either. I really am looking forward to Jim Nantz saying “and Tiger Woods climbs the tee box and reaches Pampas”.  Anyway, tight fairway means I’m playing shot number two from under a large pine. Knock down 3 iron puts me in front bunker. At this point, feeling a little better about my sand game so out in one but putting remains and issue. I’ll take a 6.

Dave: I don’t think people really understand how bad my slice is. Would you say that I lose about 150 yards of distance with my driver? In any case, I’m giving myself a 6 here as well but mostly because the pain/fear of playing Augusta has been dulled by my 4th cocktail of the afternoon.

Hole No. 8 “Yellow Jasmine” Par 5, 570 yards

Jon: I always try to hit my drive too hard on Par 5’s. Yellow Jasmine would be no different. The good news, there aren’t any bunkers surrounding the green. The bad news, you’re still putting on what is the equivalent of a sheet of ice tilted at a 45 degree angle. Give me a 9.

Dave: See your problem is that you haven’t yet realized that you aren’t any good and won’t be any good until you can play about 4 rounds a golf a week which is never going to happen for you because you will never be able to retire. Double par me!!!

Hole No. 9 “Carolina Cherry” Par 4, 460 yards

Jon: Carolina Cherry sounds like the perfect name for a soft drink. I’m not much for soda but I would definitely love to wash down a big old pulled pork sandwich w/ a frosty mug of Carolina Cherry.

Dave: I presume they would have Diet Carolina Cherry as well then.

Jon: I assume so yes. Back to the course, I’ll make the turn with a 5 putt and a 10. Total score through 9 holes: 54.

Dave: No way you shoot a 54 on the front 9. Be realistic, we’re talking about Augusta National. I’ll give myself an 8 here but only because I get lucky and hit the stick with a sand wedge from about 10 yards off the green. Total score through 9 holes: 63

Hole No. 10 “Camellia” Par 4, 495 yards

Jon: You once dated a Camellia right Dave?

Dave: Correct, and I don’t really want to talk about it. Ironically, one of her problems with my lifestyle was that I played too much golf. Go figure. Old wounds never really completely heal. I’ll take my 9 and a golf bag full of memories on to the next hole.

Jon: So sad. Well if it makes any difference I didn’t really care for Camellia, you ex not the hole, that much either. The pimento cheese sandwich and large Carolina Cherry have me reinvigorated!! Mark me down for a miraculous 5.

Hole No. 11 “White Dogwood” Par 4, 505 yards

Jon: And this is where the wheels really start to come off. I now recognize the holes we are playing after years of watching the back 9 at Augusta on CBS. My second shot travels somewhere near No. 13 tee box while my third goes strait into the drink. Drop four, hit five back over the green, 4 putt for eight. I now have no confidence heading through the rest of Amen Corner.

Dave: I don’t even finish the hole. Can we start saying double par is the max we can shoot on any given hole? No, ok fine, then better give me another 10.

Hole No. 12 “Golden Bell” Par 3, 155 yards

Jon: I’m so freaked out by Rae’s Creek that I end up totally blocking out a 9 iron towards 11 green. Of course, I assumed that our round was played without any other groups on the course thus avoiding any awkward conversation with Hunter Mahan who was attempting to line up his birdie putt on 11 before I “buzzed the tower”. Drop 2, hit 3 into Rae’s Creek. Now the frustration mounts. Forget about how fortunate we are to be playing Augusta and instead go into the golf bag for a Bud Light which happens to be left over from the previous summer. Anything to take the edge off. Give me an 8 and a whole lot of sorrow.

Dave: My nerves no longer exist thanks to the prescription meds and 2 Mint Juleps at the turn. I’m actually feeling good about this hole. 6 with a 4 putt. And by the way, images in your rear view mirror are closer than they appear.

Jon: Believe me I am aware.

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Score through 12 holes: Jon 79 Dave 88

view from Augusta National courtesy of @Luke_Donald

Our Totally Fictional Round at Augusta National – Part I of III

April 6, 2011 by Jon

In honor of the Masters, myself and VMS contributor Dave are taking you through Augusta National, hole by hole, playing the course as if we were in the field. Part I includes holes 1-6. Look for parts II and III later today and tomorrow morning.

Hole No. 1 “Tea Olive” Par 4, 445 yards

Jon: I’ll give myself a 6. Always play loose on the first hole.

Dave: Make able 8 for me, although the dogleg right does play to my enormous slice.  On the green in 4 with a masterful 4 putt to top it all off.

Jon: Yeah, you really are an awful putter. Your problem is that you don’t take enough time reading the greens. That and you start walking after the golf ball before you even finish your swing.

Hole No. 2 “Pink Dogwood” Par 5 575 yards

Jon:  I’m giving myself a 8. Booming drive followed by a 3 wood of the deck that kills about 55 worms as it travels 25 yards into a fairway bunker. Two shots out of the bunker before flying the green with my 5th shot. 3 putts ought to get me home from there.

Dave: I’ll take an 8 here, as well.  My driver does not leave the bag.  A trinity of wobbly 3-woods gets me to the greenside bunker.  After three hacks at it from the beach, I lie 6, a yard from the hole.  Two put for the snowman.  Also, I think the pink dogwoods look poisonous.

Jon: Pink dogwoods are poisonous but only to women. The all male members of Augusta National would have it no other way. Also, it would take you way more than 3 to get out of any bunker. You might as well putt from the sand.

Dave: I never specified a club.

Hole No. 3 “Flowering Peach” Par 4 350 yards

Jon: It’s time we mentioned that these holes were named after massage parlors in Stamford CT.

Dave: I was just thinking that I would approach the Flowering Peach like a clumsy combination of AC Green and Kyle Brady.

Jon: I’m going with a bogey.  First par putt of the day but I have no chance on any of these greens so I miss by about 10 feet but sink the putt coming back for 5.

Dave: Have you had a look at this green?!  I could safely hit driver here, without fear of making those bunkers– thanks to a little trick I like to play with the horizontal axis.  I could be, potentially, chipping up the green on my third.  Then, from there? I’m off the green on my first putt– hopefully not on the beach– but recover with three putts from the fringe.  7.  Which is like a birdie for me.

Jon: I believe Sir Nick Faldo would call this green “undulating”.

Hole No. 4 “Flowering Crab Apple” Par 3, 240 yards

Jon: First par 3, I’m stuck between a 3 iron and a 5 wood which I don’t carry so I try instead to go easy on a 3 wood which just causes me to rip the ball 30 yards over the green into the flowering crab apples. Circus from there, I’ll take the double par and be happy.

Dave: A 240-yard Par 3, with a green the size of a g-string?  I’m so sure.  Uphill the whole way, with a nice little false front.  I don’t even make it to the back of the green, instead opting to squib my way up the slope.  On holes like these, I like to lay up.  There is no reason for me not to card an 8 here.  3 putts.  8.

Jon: The hole’s up hill? Ok, so maybe 3 wood is hooked off the tee instead of over the green. either way I don’t have a club for this hole.

Dave: Can I just point out how unfair it is that all of these greens– so fast to begin with– funnel back-to-front?  If you’re long, no putt.  If you’re short, off the green and try it again.

Jon: If we ever do end up playing Augusta National for real can you promise to not talk about how unfair the course is and just enjoy the moment!

Dave: Yeah, definitely.  When we play Augusta, I’ll try to enjoy it.

Hole No. 5 “Magnolia” Par 4, 455 yards

Jon: I smell another fairway bunker followed by a miraculous 4 iron out of the sand that leaves me 100 yards short of the green which is just about the right distance for me to pick my head up and chunk a sand wedge about 15 feet. Next wedge is perfect but by then, damage done. I’ll take a 7.

Dave: This is my favorite hole on the front.  Modeled after the Road Hole, if you didn’t know.  I would tee with a proper wooden club if i had one.  Also, I’ve started drinking.  The only thing that saves me here is that, for once, it’s relatively open.  Dogleg left, again, so the driver stays in the bag.  Iron-iron-iron, with one of them being a good one.  Doesn’t really matter which one, right?  I’m on another busy green in four.  Seeing clearly, putting calmly, I’m down in three more.  7 for me. These holes are so frigging beautiful, by the way. Have you heard the history about where all these different flora come from?

Jon: Well yes, but only because I began my research for this column back in November.

Dave: So you’re familiar with Fruitlands Nursery, then?  And that mad-scientist Belgian fellow? For another day, I suppose.  On to 6!

Hole No. 6 “Juniper” Par 3, 180 yards

Dave: Juniper. You know what that means…it’s GIN time!!!

Jon: What are we 75? If you ever do bring gin onto the course you must also walk with a push cart and intentionally hit into the group ahead at least 3 times.

Dave: This is the gentlemanly South.  Gin is perfectly acceptable.  Especially in the afternoon.

Jon: What do you know about the gentlemanly South? You were born in Delaware and grew up in Fairfield County CT. Florida for spring break does not qualify as understanding the South.

Dave: I’ve seen “Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil”. Just tee your ball up.

Jon: Fair point. Par. I’m calling it right now. Eat your heart out McIlroy!!

Dave: The advantage of a down-facing tee is that I can roll a flubbed iron right up into those guardian bunkers.  Three to get (putt) out, three more into the hole.  7.  No problem.

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Total score through 6 holes: Jon – 35 Dave – 45

Check back in later today for Parts II and III

view from Augusta National courtesy of @RickieFowlerPGA

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