Super Bowl Squares: A Statistical Breakdown

I’m usually not one for math, in fact single variable calculus was the sole reason my freshman GPA hovered around the Mendoza Line. But since every other Super Bowl XLV angle has been exhausted, I figured a statistical breakdown of Super Bowl scores by quarter gave VMS the best chance of creating a somewhat authentic perspective. And who doesn’t like to buy a few SB squares? Think about all of the bars and private parties that have some kind of grid filled up while people wait to see what numbers they draw. (This coming from a guy who normally ends up with a nothing but a whole bunch of “2’s” and “8’s”.)

So here is a statistical breakdown of Super Bowl Squares (numbers that give you the best chance of winning) plus my Super Bowl XLV predictions by quarter.

Square Frequency/Odds First Quarter

“0”: 41/47%, “3”: 21/24%, “7”: 18/20%, “4”: 5/6%, “6”: 2/2%

XLV 1st Quarter Prediction: Steelers 7 Packers 3

Steelers take the opening kickoff all the way down the field for a Rashard Mendenhall 3 yard TD run. Aaron Rodgers wobbles off the field after a huge 3rd down hit by James Harrison which leads to an awkward 10 seconds of dead air while Troy Aikman tries to remember Super Bowl XXVIII.

Square Frequency/Odds Second Quarter

“0”: 26/30%, “3”: 17/19%, “7”: 17/19%, “4”: 9/10%, “6”: 9/10%

XLV 2nd Quarter Prediction: Steelers 14 Packers 10

And now for the Bridgestone Halftime Spectacular featuring Fergie, the guy who kinda looks like Lou Diamond Phillips, and that dude from that Obama song!!!!

Square Frequency/Odds 3rd Quarter

“7”: 20/23%, “0”: 18/20%, “3”: 12/14%, “4”: 11/13%, “6”: 8/9%

XLV 3rd Quarter Prediction: Packers 24 Steelers 17

Halftime adjustments allow Green Bay to storm ahead during the 3rd quarter. Speaking of storms, can sportswriters covering the Super Bowl in Dallas please stop talking about how bad the weather is? The Northeast has been bombarded with over 60 inches of snow since Christmas.  It’s North Texas’ own fault for not listening to the Mayan Calendar.

Square Frequency/Odds 4th Quarter

“7”: 19/22%, “0”: 12/14%, “4”: 11/13%, “1”: 10/11%, “6”: 10/11%

XLV Final Score: Steelers 27 Packers 24

This game will come down to the team with the most experience/clutch quarterback.  With a 3rd Super Bowl ring, Ben Roethlisberger now enters the discussion as the most accomplished current QB alongside Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Expect TMZ to be the first to break the story that Big Ben was in fact celebrating on the plane ride home to Pittsburgh, leading to a national news story which remains in the headlines until the start of spring training.

view from inside Cowboys Stadium courtesy of @danpbell

An Outsiders Guide to Super Bowl XLV

As Super Bowl week commences, and all of football envelops Dallas like a swarm of locusts, it’s important for those of us not heading down to Texas to take a second and appreciate how fortunate we will be to watch the big game from the comforts of our home environs. Here are three simple reasons why going to the Super Bowl is an overrated experience. (Editors note: I myself have never gone to a Super Bowl. If there is anyone out there who would like to offer me a ticket to the game I would be more than happy to take you up on the wonderful opportunity.)

Reason #1: The Home Entertainment System – It’s easier, more entertaining to watch the Super Bowl on television than from the stands. At home, in front of a flat screen, our greatest weapon is the remote control. Anyone who has ever been to a football game will tell you that with all the starting and stopping it’s impossible to maintain a consistent flow of on the field action. The Super Bowl, with all of its extra ad time/halftime theatrics, is regular season distraction multiplied by a factor of ten. At least at home we can switch channels or use the bathroom without having to wait in line.

Reason #2: The Crowd – It seems like the majority of Super Bowl tickets are usually dispersed amongst high profile corporate types and fringe fans who really don’t care about the game itself.  At home, you can choose who you want to watch the game with. At the game, you could be stuck next to Bill and Kevin from accounting who treat the whole Super Bowl experience as if it where some kind of extended “hall pass”. At least at home you can just simply not invite those friends who you know are going to drink too much too fast and then spend the entire second half talking on their cellphones.

Reason #3: Cost – I heard somewhere that the average household income in Wisconsin is something like 50K.  A trip to the Super Bowl in Dallas will probably cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $2500 per person. Using this arithmetic, for a husband and wife from Green Bay to go the the Super Bowl it is going to cost them roughly 10-15% of their annual income. That’s a whole lot of money which could have been spent on something much more practical like say a new snowmobile or perhaps an entire case of insect repellent.

And the list goes on and on.  Point is this, don’t feel too bad if you’re unable to make it to the big game, chances are you’ll have a much better time watching from your sofa.

view of Aloha Stadium courtesy of @JaymesSong